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Old 20-03-2012, 06:48 PM
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A Market Review and Opinion Report For March 18, 2012

A bull flag continues to develop on a crude oil daily chart but don’t get fooled by this technical pattern, as it is more of an indicator of volatility expansion than direction. The bottom line for oil is there should be a lull in fundamental supply and demand drivers over the next 3 months, with the risk of an Iran-Israel-U.S. conflict remaining as an ever present potential catalyst for an epic oil rally. Right now employment in the U.S. is very bullish, Greece is seemingly recovering, and the stock market seems to have no end to its weekly fresh highs. This is when you should be CONTRARIAN! Now is the time to anticipate trend reversals. The good news is out and look at what is out there for risk factors – U.S. housing, Portugal, Spain and yes even Germany should be areas of concern. I expect oil to break this week and take commodity prices with it.

The S&P500 is now at the end of one of the biggest bull runs of any 5 month period in history – a staggering 22.7% since Thanksgiving! Strong and steady, absorbing retracements in a matter of days, this market rally is ready to turn hard and fast. I recommend straight puts. June T-bonds need to close above 137 to turn the market, something I anticipate will occur this week. The dollar is choppy but bullish and should continue to rally this week. The yen is at a critical support juncture and I believe a quick reversal to 130 is likely. I continue to stand by my forecast that:

The Japanese Yen futures will hit 140 before it hits 80 or I will quit writing the Weekend Commodities Review...forever.

Soybeans might have topped on Friday, with a close below 13.63 on the May contract on Monday indicating a possible turning point. The market is overbought and has diverged substantially from corn and beans. This week’s Mound Trade Signals Premium Service offers my recommended trade in soybeans. Look for all the grains to turn bearish this week, ahead of the big plantings report at the end of the month.

Cattle continues to offer sell signals, with a bear move expected to run through April. Hogs broke down last week but are still stuck in a longer term congestion pattern.

A big selloff in metals last week should be just the beginning of an epic collapse. Jump short on bounces with bear put spreads designed to partially offset the outrageous put premiums. Copper remains a long term short on a declining rate of growth in China.

Coffee needs to close below Friday’s low on Monday to continue its bearish momentum, otherwise a short squeezing rally may ensue for a week or so. Overall I would look at any bounce as an opportunity to establish a short at a value in this market heading for 160. OJ is a short while sugar made a major rebound move – a bit of a technical shocker – and would be hard to short at this point. Cotton is avoidable. Cocoa reversed a big-time selloff and I wouldn’t touch it until it broke those lows from Friday (2169 on May), after which it could gather some serious downside momentum.

Disclaimer: Trading in futures and options involves a substantial degree of a risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Fundamental factors, seasonal and weather trends, daily news, and other current events may have already been factored into the markets. Commodities trading can be extremely risky and is not for everyone. Some trading strategies have unlimited risk. Educate yourself on the risks and rewards of such investing prior to trading. James Mound Marketing Group, the publisher, and/or its affiliates, staff or anyone associated with James Mound Marketing Group or www.moundreport.com, do not guarantee profits or pre-determined loss points, and are not held monetarily responsible for the trading losses of others (subscribers or otherwise). Information provided is compiled by sources believed to be reliable. James Mound Marketing Group, and/or its principals, assume no responsibility for any errors or omissions as the information may not be complete or events may have been canceled or rescheduled. Any copy, reprint, broadcast or distribution of this report of any kind is prohibited without the expressed written consent of James Mound Marketing Group.
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