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Old 20-12-2011, 08:59 PM
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A Market Review and Opinion Report For December 18, 2011


Oil prices came off the highs hard and fast, coinciding with the stock market reversal. Crude oil should see a significant pullback to $75 – obviously quite a ways away from current levels. That target is based on fresh lows sparked by the S&P penetrating support and the dollar continuing its breakout rally. This week this sector might bounce momentarily. RBOB and heating oil should follow suit, while natural gas is a contrarian long spread play against any of the above.


The S&P fell hard off the Dec 8th highs at 1266 – a topside resistance level that should hold for some time. On a daily chart the S&P is actually showing a bullish Mound Ladle Formationtm which suggests a volatile rally that should test 1266. I am not one to ignore my own indicators, so a flare up should be expected followed by severe downside – basically a last suckers rally before the stock market begins to collapse.

Bonds should remain choppy but I would peel off previously recommended premium collection strategies. The dollar is in a bull breakout and, even if it pulls back below 80 momentarily, there is substantial upside expected long term. The euro currency is in real trouble and they are throwing money at a fire expecting it to go out. The money will flock to the dollar, and perhaps the British pound eventually, once the market realizes England made the best move they could to separate from the euro. The yen is quiet and choppy – minus another intervention here this market should rally in the near term. I continue to stand by my forecast that:

The Japanese Yen futures will hit 140 before it hits 80 or I will quit writing the Weekend Commodities Review...forever.


Grains have seemingly flat lined, but with the exception of soybeans these markets are really just in a slow technical failure. It is December and seasonally speaking there isn’t a whole lot to trade off of this time of year except to speculate on plantings and look at global demand. A dollar rally should put another round of selling in here, but it may be January before we see it. Long term these markets have a long way to fall, with wheat holding a bit better from here than the rest.


Cattle and hogs are both in a downtrend, hogs more like a freefall. These markets should fall dramatically into 2012 and puts are recommended.


Gold and silver took it on the chin this past week after the dollar broke out to the upside. Traders got a taste of volatility for the first time in a while, and I would not expect that to end anytime soon. I expect a fakeout rally to end in the biggest selloff volatility since the Hunt Brothers silver rally failed.


Coffee continues to chop lower with escalating volatility to the downside expected in coming weeks. Cocoa self-destructed as anticipated and this recent bounce looks like a dead cat to me. Cotton is both bearish and not worth trading here. OJ and sugar remain strong sells.

James Mound
Head analyst for MoundReport.com

Disclaimer: There is risk of loss in all commodities trading. Losses can exceed your account size and/or margin requirements. Commodities trading can be extremely risky and is not for everyone. Some option strategies have unlimited risk. Educate yourself on the risks and rewards of such investing prior to trading. Past Performance is not indicative of future results. Information provided is compiled by sources believed to be reliable. JMTG or its principals assume no responsibility for any errors or omissions as the information may not be complete or events may have been cancelled or rescheduled. Options do not necessarily move in lock step with the underlying futures movement. Any copy, reprint, broadcast or distribution of this report of any kind is prohibited without the express written consent of James Mound Trading Group LLC.
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