Economic Overview of Papua New Guinea

[Cool_Guy1]

According to the Bank of Papua New Guinea's latest (March 2017) monetary policy statement, the economy shrank from double digit growth rates experienced in 2014 and 2015, 12.5 and 11.8 respectively, to 2.0 percent growth forecast for 2016 and 2.8 percent in 2017. The outlook for 2018 and 2019 are 2.7 percent growth of the economy.

On the other hand, annual headline inflation was 6.6, 6.4 and 6.6 percent in 2014, 2015 and 2016 respectively, while forecast for 2017, 2018 and 2019 are at 6.5, 6.0 and 5.5 percent respectively.

According to the document, the government is looking towards financing its budget deficit through external sources, however, if it does not source the finances externally, the government will seek domestic financing, which, most of the financiers, who are the big banks have reached their limits on lending to the government.

Given this bleak scenario, the new government coming in after the election should have people with brains to run the country, rather than a repeat of brainless idiots who just know how to spend money and not knowing where to generate much needed income. A rescue package is much needed to stimulate growth and come out of the debt burden.

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[Cool_Guy1]

Economic Outlook for 2018 - An independent perspective

From my analysis, so far for 2018, the economy still remains depressed, growing below trend growth with an appreciated real exchange rate, resulting in low inflation outcomes. We are now into August and there is no sign of improvement, as key growth stimulants don't show any sign of recovery, hence my forecast is for the economy to remain below trend growth for the whole of 2018. Why do i say that?
1. International commodity prices on average have not recovered fully.
2. Due to low international commodity prices, export of agricultural commodities in volume terms have declined and have yet to recover. This is due to, switch by small holder growers from depending on agricultural export commodities like coffee to growing kaukau which is earning them big bucks.
3. The resulting effect of points 1 and 2, stuffed off foreign exchange flows and hence resulted in the shortage of foreign exchange in the market.
4. Other contributing factor to the shortage of foreign exchange in the market has been the Governments so-called Tax Credit Scheme to the extractive industries. Instead of collecting tax in foreign currencies, the Government decided to advance those to construct stadiums, roads etc and stuffed off any tax collection, hence shortage of foreign currency.
5. Continuous shortage of government funds to fund its operations due to point 4. Further, the economic environment does not warrant for expansion of business, hence additional taxation sources have dried up.
6. With shortfalls in revenue Government continues to borrow, and it is increasing on a weekly basis.

On a positive note, the APEC meeting should bring in some money but, that would not be enough to compensate and enhance economic growth surpassing trend growth.

I would therefore conclude that, this year 2018, economic growth will be below trend hence a depressed economy. People are talking up the economy, but, it will still remain depressed for the year.